瑞银发布最新2020-2021年全球经济与市场展望报告,有哪些主要动向值得注意:
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预计2020年全球经济复苏 但力度小于市场预期
We expect a recovery in 2020 but a much weaker one than consensus
我们发现,在全球工业生产走弱的原因中,汽车周期占到了最高达一半,而科技周期贡献了名义贸易疲弱态势的30-40%,美国页岩周期也成为全球活动的一个主要影响因素。
We show that the Auto cycle accounts for up to half of the global industrial production weakness, the Tech cycle contributed 30-40% of the nominal trade weakness, and the US Shale cycle has also become a major driver of global activity.
我们还解释了为何宽松的金融条件并未转化成增长。尽管2020年科技和汽车应会回升,但美国大选日益成为焦点,而英国脱欧仍未决,发达市场的就业增长离“停滞速度”只差40个基点。
We also explain why loose financial conditions are not translating to growth. Although Tech and Autos should pick up momentum in 2020 , US elections are coming into focus, Brexit remains unresolved and employment growth is only 40bp from 'stall speed' in DM.
2020年四大投资主题和19项投资建议
Four investment themes and 19 investment ideas for 2020
1)瑞银周期钟告诉我们已经过了系统性风险时间。市场周期接近历史高点,但经济和金融周期处于一般水平,我们要深挖超额收益;
1)The UBS Cycle Clock tells us that it's past Beta time. The Market Cycle is close to anall-time high while the Business and Financial Cycles are middling. We dig deep to find Alpha.
2)有意愿提振名义增长的决策者(欧洲央行、日本央行)能力不足,而有能力提振名义增长的决策者却不愿大幅放松政策。
2) Policy makers who are willing (ECB, BoJ) have been less able to lift nominalgrowth, while those who are able are not willing to loosen strongly.Risk premia may uncoil.
3)零重力及其之下的世界应会令债券的买兴高涨,尤其在发达市场—要习惯扁平的收益率曲线;
3) The gravity of zero and the world beneath it should keepduration bid, especially in the developed markets. Get used to flat curves.
4)尾部均很大,但对冲成本较小—要比以往更注重保护。
4) Both tailsare fat, but the cost of hedging is skinny – pay more attention than usual to protection.Here is a full list of our investment recommendations along these themes.
股市:上半年疲弱 美股将震荡跑赢欧股
Equities: Weak H1, better H2. US to outperform Europe over a bumpy ride
无论下一届美国总统是谁,都不大可能出现极端结果。我们预计会有波动性,但全年看,相较于欧股,我们更看好标普500指数。
Extreme outcomes are unlikely, whoever the next US President. We expect volatility, but over the year, we prefer the S&P 500 over Europe.
我们看好的其他市场包括日本、中国及英国,而对澳大利亚和除中国外新兴市场持谨慎立场。可能在2020年下半年之前,我们都不大可能具备价值股全面复苏的条件。
Our other preferred markets are Japan, China and the UK, while we are cautious on Australia and EM ex China. We're unlikely to have the conditions for a broad renaissance in Value equities until potentially H2 2020.
利率与信贷:看好债券 对信贷持谨慎立场
Rates & Credit: Bullish duration, cautious on credit
2019年利率与利差之间呈正向关联,而2020年这种正向关联应会翻转。我们预计美国市场投资级和高收益信贷利差将分别扩大至145和550个基点,欧洲市场则分别扩大至130和500个基点。
2019's positive correlation between rates and spreads should flip in 2020. We see IG & HY widening to 145bp & 550bp in the US, and to 130bp & 500bp in Europe.
我们预计全球收益率在25上下触底,此后将回升。我们对所有市场的收益率预测均低于远期收益率,尤其是美元市场。相较于市场定价,我们最看好美国公债,尤其是30年期美国公债。
We expect global yields to bottom in mid-20 and rise thereafter. Our yield forecasts are below forwards in all of our markets and most particularly within the USD bloc. Relative to market pricing, we are least bullish GBP and most bullish UST, particularly 30y.
外汇:美元温和走软
FX: Modest USD weakness
相对增长开始令美元承压,下半年全球前景改善应会令美元到2020年底温和走弱。
Relative growth is starting to weigh on the USD, and an improving global outlook in H2 should leave it modestly weaker by end-2020.
我们将跟踪美国投资者购买外国证券的情况来支持我们的观点。挪威克朗/瑞典克朗、巴西雷亚尔/墨西哥比索及印尼卢比/南非兰特的上涨空间蕴藏较好的alpha 。
We will be tracking purchases of foreign securities by US investors to corroborate our view. There is decent alpha to be made in NOKSEK, BRLMXN, and IDRZAR upside.
上行风险
Upside risks
和2017年的强健态势被放大了一样,2019年关税造成的冲击也可能被不断下跌的汽车需求、乏力的科技周期、疲弱的页岩产量及中印较紧的金融条件所加剧。
Just as 2017's strength was exaggerated, 2019's tariff hit could have been similarly made worse by a perfect storm of falling car demand, a weak Tech cycle, soft shale production and tight financial conditions in China and India.
其中有些因素或可内生性改善并提振全球增长率升向趋势值。
Some of these factors may organically improve and lift global growth towards trend.